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June Gov't Jobs Report: Major Revisions to Past Job-Growth Numbers & New Signals to a Possible Recession.

“10 of the last 15 jobs reports have been revised downward, and this seesaw of revisions makes it very difficult for businesses to discern a reliable direction.” 

 -- Andrew Crapuchettes, RedBalloon CEO 



The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Employment Situation Report this morning containing heavy 25% downward revisions from the past 2 jobs reports. According to the BLS, the economy created 206,000 jobs in June, but 111,000 in revisions bring that number down to just 95,000 jobs, 70,000 of which are reported as coming from the “government” sector


Additionally, unemployment ticked up to 4.1%, signaling a continued cooling of the labor market which has traditionally foreshadowed a coming economic slowdown. That’s what small business owners have been telling the Freedom Economy Index survey for the past several months, painting a picture of an increasingly tough economy.


In the July 2024 Freedom Economy Index, 51% of small business owners say they now feel the economy is “turning negative” and 3 out of 4 say they are neither hiring nor reducing staff.

 

“There’s just a lot of uncertainty among small business owners,” said RedBalloon CEO Andrew Crapuchettes. “10 of the last 15 jobs reports have been revised downward, and this seesaw of revisions makes it very difficult for businesses to discern a reliable direction in the numbers. But overall, the small business community is feeling a heavy recessionary chill on the economy, and that’s showing up in their hiring patterns.”


Overall, the June Employment Situation Report showed that the US economy added 206,000 jobs in the month of June. This number, which came in slightly above expectations, was largely fueled by large increases in hiring in the Government and Health Care sectors, which came in at 70,000 and 49,000 jobs respectively.


Meanwhile, the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1%, up slightly from 4%, and wages increased by 0.3 percent, and have increased by 3.9 percent for the year.

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